There was a discussion a few days ago about T20s being unpredictable like never before. This World Cup especially is a roller coaster. Every game has its own way of changing emotions and it is extremely difficult to decide which team will finally make it to the Super 12.
Group A is having its own journey. The group had one of the biggest turnarounds of the tournament on the first itself. Namibia beat Sri Lanka by such a massive margin that set the tone for the World Cup. That it will be an interesting ride and we should brace ourselves for it.
Earlier it was assumed that Sri Lanka will easily qualify for the Super 12. They are the champions of the Asia Cup and they had beaten Pakistan and India on their way to the tournament title. But cricket gods had something else written for them and it was not the best result for them. Now they are on the edge to lose it and go home.
Let’s see who in Group A can qualify for the Super 12s given every scenario we can think of.
No Worry for Namibia
The luckiest team of the lot. Namibia is positioned to make the Super 12s despite Tuesday’s defeat to the Netherlands. Their NRR of 1.277 is by far the highest in their group, and they just need to defeat the UAE to advance. The odds of that happening are very likely.
Namibia will benefit from knowing the equations in advance because they are the last team to play. Even if Namibia loses to the UAE, they may still advance to the Super 12s, but only if Sri Lanka also loses to the Netherlands. In the event that the Netherlands defeats Sri Lanka by the slimmest of margins, Namibia can afford to lose by 27 runs.
No Sleep for the Netherlands
With two victories in a row, the Netherlands is presently in first place in Group A, but a loss to Sri Lanka on Thursday might end their season. If Sri Lanka and Namibia win, even after having 4 points, their NRR of 0.149 is the lowest among the teams that would have 4 points. They will then be placed in 3rd position and will not qualify. The Netherlands must beat Sri Lanka. The chances of that happening are also slightly odd. Thus they should hope that Namibia loses to UAE if they lose against Sri Lanka. If one of the two games on Thursday is postponed, they will move on to the Super 12.
The Curious Case of Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka was anticipated to easily join the Super 12s. However, their campaign was derailed with a defeat to Namibia by 55 runs in the tournament opener. The 2014 winners, though, bounced back with a 79-run victory over UAE to raise their net run rate.
Now there is just a straightforward requirement. There are no ifs and buts. They must defeat the Netherlands. If they do, they would want to do it with a high net run rate. Their high NRR will mean that the outcome of Namibia vs UAE is irrelevant to them. In contrast, a loss would force Sri Lanka to rely on UAE, who would then need to overcome Namibia by a margin of 28 runs greater than their margin of defeat against the Netherlands. If the last two Group A games are a tie, Sri Lanka will not advance to the next round.
Hopeless UAE will Need Miracle
UAE has lost both of its games, but they are still in the running to make the Super 12. However, they are now in a situation where they would require a small miracle after their 79-run loss to Sri Lanka on Tuesday.
To surpass their NRR, they must defeat Namibia by at least 66 runs, and they must also hope that Sri Lanka loses to the Netherlands by roughly 40 runs. The greater the UAE must win by, the lower Sri Lanka’s loss margin must be. UAE will be eliminated from the race if Sri Lanka scores in the Netherlands encounter.
Who Will Qualify for Super 12 from Group A?
Coming to conclusion, it seems like Sri Lanka and Namibia are the teams who would make it to Super 12s. This is only a conventional guess. Netherlands may beat Sri Lanka and that would simply send them to the finals. There is also a UAE miracle but we a definitely dismissing those odds. Also, in the event that both of the matches on Thursday are forfeited, Namibia and the Netherlands will advance to Super 12.
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