What do New Zealand, Australia, England, and Sri Lanka need to do to make the semis: What are the scenarios?
The hosts will need to get their calculators out, while England hold the big advantage of playing last
England’s victory against New Zealand means that there are still plenty of qualification possibilities in Group 1, with just three games to go. Here is a look at what each team needs to do to make it to the semi-finals.
Played: 4, Points: 5, NRR: 2.233, Remaining match: vs Ire (Adelaide)
Despite the loss against England, New Zealand is still in a respectable position to advance. Any victory in their final match against Ireland should be sufficient. Australia will need to defeat England by roughly 152 runs and England by roughly 95 runs for both teams to surpass New Zealand’s outstanding net run rate (NRR), which is now 2.233, even if they win by only one run.
However, New Zealand will have to pray that Australia loses to Afghanistan as well if they lose to Ireland on Friday. Then, New Zealand will qualify along with the winner of the England-Sri Lanka game (unless they have suffered a significant loss).
Played: 4, Points: 5, NRR: 0.547, Remaining match: vs SL (Sydney)
With regard to points, England is tied with New Zealand and Australia. Their NRR of 0.547 is higher than Australia’s NRR of -0.304 but significantly lower than New Zealand’s NRR of 2.233. It would undoubtedly come down to NRR if all three clubs prevail in their respective final games. As previously stated, New Zealand is clearly in the lead in this area.
To maintain its lead on NRR, England will need to defeat Sri Lanka by at least 10 runs on Saturday if Australia scores 180 and defeats Afghanistan by 60 runs on Friday. This indicates that for England to maintain their lead, the margin differential must be at least 50 runs. When England plays the final game of the group, they will be fully aware of what they must do.
However, if England loses against Sri Lanka, they will almost surely be eliminated even if Australia and New Zealand lose their last games. Because they are far behind New Zealand on NRR. And in such a case Sri Lanka will surpass the group on points.
Played: 4, Points: 5, NRR: -0.304, Remaining match: vs Afg (Adelaide)
As explained above, Australia will get into an unfavorable Net run rate battle. With New Zealand and England if all three teams win their last games in the group. What they would much rather prefer, Obviously, is for at least one of the New Zealand England to lose their last game. They will then qualify without the Net run rate coming into play.
However, since they play on Friday, before England’s game against Sri Lanka, Australia will have to go for as big a win as possible. If, for instance, they chase a target of 120 in 12 overs. England will need to chase down 150 in around 17.5 overs to sneak ahead on NRR. All of this means that plenty of calculators will be out over the weekend.
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: -0.457, Remaining match: vs Eng (Sydney)
Sri Lanka are the only team in contention in this group with an even number of points. The only way they can qualify is if they beat England, and if at least one of New Zealand or Australia lose their last game. If their game against England gets washed out. Sri Lanka will be eliminated in that NRR which far behind that of New Zealand.
This was a brief analysis of the group in which how can they get to the top and slide into the semi-finals. The teams will have to work hard enough to beat the contenders of the list for the semi-final clash.