T20 World Cup Qualification Scenarios: India’s Hopes Hang By A Thread

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T20 World Cup 2021 qualification scenarios
T20 World Cup 2021 qualification scenarios

The T20 World Cup 2021 is now nearing the business end. Teams are jostling for points in a race to enter the semi-finals. Pakistan are the only team across both the groups to secure a semifinal spot. While teams like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have been knocked out from the competition. 

We look at the qualification scenarios for the other remaining teams in the competition:

Group 1:

England:

They have 4 wins from as many games with a healthy net run rate of 3.183. England have a game left to play against the Proteas. Their qualification is all but sealed. But a win will guarantee them a top spot as none of the other teams in group 1 have a 100% win record up until now.

In the case of England losing to South Africa, their defeat margin should be less than 80 runs. Even in that case, Australia need to win their 2 remaining games with a cumulative win margin of 165 runs. England’s dominant showing so far has more or less led their path into the semi-finals.

Games left: South Africa, Sharjah, November 6.

South Africa:

They started the tournament on a wrong note losing a close game against Australia. But since then South Africa have been on a roll. They currently sit pretty at the 2nd spot with a game left. They will qualify if they win their last game owing to their better net run rate. But if they lose to England and Australia end up winning their remaining two games, then they will be knocked out.

If it’s a 3-way tie between them, Australia, and the West Indies on points, South Africa at the moment have the better net run rate that will allow them to go to the semifinals.

Games left: England, Sharjah, November 6.

Australia:

Australia’s World Cup campaign suffered a huge blow after a crushing defeat to England. Their net run rate (-0.627) is the worst as compared to the teams sitting on top of them. Australia need to win both their games with a big margin to entertain the chances of making it to the semifinals. The moment South Africa defeat England, Australia’s chances will be well and truly over. Even in the case of a 3-way tie, it will be the net run rate that will pull them down.

Games left: Bangladesh, Dubai, November 4 | West Indies, Abu Dhabi, November 6.

West Indies:

The defending champions are just a loss or a negative result away from being knocked out. Their fate is no longer in their hands. The drubbing that they received against England in their opening game has cost them heavily. Their net run rate (-1.598) is the second-worst among 12 super teams.

The only way out for them is to win both their remaining games with a total of around 95 runs. In addition to this, England need to beat South Africa by around 50 runs and Australia to beat Bangladesh but not by more than 40 runs. If they lose one of their remaining games or if South Africa beats England, the Windies will be eliminated.

Games left: Sri Lanka, Abu Dhabi, November 4 | Australia, Abu Dhabi, November 6.

Group 2:

New Zealand:

The equation for New Zealand is simple. If they win their remaining 3 games, they go through. They could be tied on 6 points with India (if they win all their remaining 3 games) if they lose to Afghanistan and win the other 2 games. NRR will then become a deciding factor. Afghanistan have the best NRR in group 2 and in case of a deciding factor, they have an upper edge.

Games left: Scotland, Dubai, Nov 3 | Namibia, Sharjah, Nov 5 | Afg, Abu Dhabi, Nov 7

Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s USP this tournament has been their style of play. It has helped them notch big wins over Scotland and Namibia. Owing to these massive wins, their NRR stands at 3.097. Afghanistan’s most important game is against New Zealand, which might prove to be a virtual quarterfinal. They will go through if they win both their remaining games in T20 World Cup.

Remaining games: India, Abu Dhabi, Nov 3 | New Zealand, Abu Dhabi, Nov 7

India

India’s tournament is as good as over. This is quite ironic as they have just played a couple of tough games. India no longer have the outcome in their own hands as they need many factors to come together. To start with, India need to win all their 3 remaining games. They need to win and win handsomely with a cumulative margin of around 250 runs. As their NRR (-1.609) needs a lot of work to be done. India’s chances look quite grim at this moment in T20 World Cup.

Remaining games: Afghanistan, Abu Dhabi, Nov 3 | Scotland, Dubai, Nov 5 | Namibia, Dubai, Nov 7

Namibia & Scotland

Both Namibia and Scotland are sailing in the same boat with two defeats each. They need to win both their remaining games with comfortable margins to make a dash for the semifinals.

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